Forum Views - March 2024

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Dr. Vispi Rusi Bhathena, PhD (h.c.)

Chief Executive Officer

Dr. V. Aditya Srinivas

Chief Operating Officer

and Chief Economist

Dear Readers,

India's Economic Resilience in a Global Landscape

In the ever-evolving landscape of global economies, India stands out as a beacon of resilience and growth. As the world

grapples with uncertainties and slowdown fears, our nation's economic performance is turning heads and earning

accolades.

The recently released forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) paint a promising picture for the Indian

economy. With a projected GDP growth rate of 6.5% for the fiscal year 2025, India emerges as one of the fastest-growing

economies globally. In stark contrast, the world GDP is anticipated to grow at 3%, and the United States at 1.8%.

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This impressive growth trajectory not only underscores India's economic prowess but also positions it as a torchbearer

amid global uncertainties.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its recent monetary policy review, decided to keep the Repo Rate unchanged at 6.5%.

The central bank's cautious approach is reflected in its inflation forecasts, with an expectation of 4.5% for the fiscal year

2025. The RBI emphasizes that the downward journey of interest rates will be contingent on a substantial decrease in

inflation, showcasing a commitment to maintaining economic stability.

Examining key indicators, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) reflects a positive trend, growing at 3.8% in December.

While slightly slower than the previous month, this figure outpaces the expansion observed in the same month of the

previous year. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is also on a downward trajectory, registering 5.1% in January

2024 compared to 5.69% in December. This marks a significant improvement from the 6.52% recorded in 2023,

reinforcing the narrative of controlled inflation.

A crucial barometer of economic activity, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection, has reached an impressive Rs.

1,72,000 crores. This robust collection not only signifies the strength of the underlying currents in the Indian economy but

also underscores its ability to withstand global headwinds. Furthermore, direct tax collections stand at ₹15.60 lakh crore,

representing a substantial 20.25% increase compared to the corresponding period last year.

In conclusion, India's economic journey is capturing the attention of the world. The numbers speak for themselves,

portraying a story of resilience, growth, and sound fiscal management. As we navigate the global economic landscape,

the torchbearer that is the Indian economy illuminates the path forward, instilling confidence in the face of uncertainties.

FORUM VIEWS, MARCH 2024 edition

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FORUM VIEWS - MARCH 2024

BF Policy Group Physical Meeting, IMC (3 February 2024)

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