Things To Consider When
Buying a Home
FALL 2022
EDITION
Mike Cranston
Realtor
CENTURY 21 Realty @ Home
Midlothian, VA
mike@mikecranston.com
www.mikecranston.com
(804) 339-1441
Table of Contents
Should I Buy a Home This Fall?
Expert Insights for Today’s Homebuyers
More Options for Your Home Search
Housing Market Forecast
10
Americans Choose Real Estate as the
Best Investment
11
The Benefit of Buying a Home Now
13
The One Thing You Need To Know
About a Recession
15 Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
18 What You Need To Know About Down
Payment Assistance Programs
20 Things To Avoid After Applying
for a Mortgage
21
Tips for Making Your Best Offer
23
Top Reasons To Own Your Home
If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to buy a home, you should know you
have an opportunity to grow your wealth, stabilize your expenses, and benefit
from more options for your home search this fall.
Should I Buy a Home This Fall?
1. The Number of Homes for Sale Is Increasing
While the number of homes for sale is still low compared to pre-pandemic norms,
there is good news for your home search. The number of homes for sale has grown
considerably this year. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:
“It’s very promising that housing inventory is improving. There are nearly 30%
more homes available for sale compared to January.”
If you begin your search now and work with a trusted real estate advisor, you’ll
be in a great spot to benefit from those additional options to help you find your
dream home.
2. Home Prices Are Appreciating More Moderately
If you’re waiting to buy because you think home prices will fall, you should know
experts say that’s not projected to happen. According to the latest forecasts, experts
project home prices will keep appreciating nationally, just at a more moderate pace
than they did over the past year.
The good news is, once you do buy a home, any ongoing appreciation will help
grow the value of your investment.
Bottom Line
Let’s connect if you’re ready to learn more about the benefits and rewards of
homeownership. Having a local expert on your side is the best way to make your
dream a reality this season.
3. Homeownership Can Grow Your Wealth
Once you own a home, you’ll own a tangible asset that typically grows in value over
time. As home prices appreciate, and as you pay your monthly mortgage payment,
you’ll build equity in your home. This gives your own net worth and stability a boost.
As Freddie Mac says:
“Building equity through your monthly principal payments and appreciation is a
critical part of homeownership that can help you create financial stability.”
4. Buying a Home Helps Shield You from Rising Costs
Census data shows the median monthly rent is consistently going up (see chart
below) and has been since the late 1980s. To escape rising rents, consider
purchasing a home so you can stabilize your monthly housing payment.
Homeownership allows you to lock in what’s typically your largest monthly expense:
your housing payment.
$325
$375
$425
$475
$525
$575
$625
$675
$725
$775
$825
$875
$925
$975
$1,025
$1,075
$1,125
$1,175
$1,225
$1,275
$1,325
$1,375
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Q2
Median Asking Rent Since 1988
Source: Census
If you want to buy a home today, here are a few things experts say you should
know about what to expect and why homeownership is so important.
Expert Insights for
Today’s Homebuyers
“
Active inventory continued to grow, . . . . the improvement for buyers essentially
means they have four choices today for every three they had one year ago.
- Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com
“
Homeownership builds financial security. . . . the net worth of a typical
homeowner is nearly 40 times the net worth of a non-owner.
- National Association of Realtors (NAR)
“
Homeownership is still considered one of the most reliable ways to build
wealth. When you make monthly mortgage payments, you're building equity in
your home. . . . When you rent, you aren't investing in your financial future the
same way you are when you're paying off a mortgage.
- CNET
“
This is an opportunity for people with a secure job to jump into the market,
when other people are a little hesitant because of a possible recession.
They’ll have fewer buyers to compete with.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.3
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
There’s no denying the housing market has delivered a fair share of challenges
to homebuyers over the past two years. Two of the biggest hurdles were the
limited number of homes for sale and the intensity and frequency of bidding
wars. But those two things have reached a turning point.
The Number of Homes for Sale Is Growing
According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the supply of homes
for sale has increased consistently this year (see graph below). For you, that means
you’ll have more options to choose from, so it shouldn’t be as difficult to find your next
home as it has been previously.
More Options for Your Home Search
Supply of Homes for Sale Is Increasing This Year
Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
If you’ve been outbid before or struggled to find a home that meets your needs, breathe
a welcome sigh of relief. The big takeaway here is you have more options and less
competition today. George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at realtor.com,
confirms this is positive for buyers:
“. . . more available properties and less competition, . . . point toward a welcome
change for buyers who are still in the market. The upcoming fall season may offer
an even better window of opportunity, as long as the inventory landscape
continues improving, as we’ve seen in recent months."
5.5
4.2
3.4
2.8
April
May
June
July
Bottom Line
With more options to choose from and less intense bidding wars, you could have a
unique opportunity in front of you. Let’s connect today to discuss your options in our
local market.
The Intensity of Bidding Wars Is Easing
The good news is having more options may also lead to less intense bidding wars. Data
from the Confidence Index from NAR shows this trend has already begun. Their report
shows bidding wars are easing month-over-month (see graph below):
Bidding Wars Ease in Recent Months
Average Number of Offers on Sold Homes (April – July 2022)
Source: NAR
The housing market is at a turning point, and if you’re thinking of buying a
home, that may leave you wondering: is it the right time to make a move? Let’s
turn to the experts for what the future is projected to hold.
Experts Project Mortgage Rates Will Stabilize
This year, mortgage rates have climbed over 2% due to the Federal Reserve’s response
to inflation. While mortgage rates continue to fluctuate, experts project they’ll start to
stabilize in the months ahead, hovering in the low 5% range initially, and then possibly
dipping into the high 4% range later next year. That could bring some welcome relief if
you’re ready to buy a home (see chart below):
Housing Market Forecast
Mortgage Rate Projections
Quarter
Freddie
Mac
Fannie
Mae
MBA
NAR
Average
of All Four
2022 4Q
5.4
4.8
5.2
6.0
5.4%
2023 1Q
5.2
4.7
5.1
6.0
5.3%
2023 2Q
5.2
4.5
5.0
6.0
5.2%
2023 3Q
5.0
4.4
4.9
4.8%
Bottom Line
As a buyer, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market so you can
make the most informed decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss your goals so you
can determine the best plan for your move.
Home Price Forecasts Call for Ongoing Appreciation
In 2021, home prices appreciated rapidly because there were far more people looking
to make a purchase than there were homes available for sale. CoreLogic helps explain
how unusual last year’s price gains were:
“Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full
year average of 6%.”
This year, home price appreciation is slowing (or decelerating) from the feverish pace
the market saw during the pandemic. According to the latest forecasts, experts say
nationwide, prices will still appreciate by roughly 11.3% in 2022 (see graph below):
2022 Home Price Forecasts
Based on Expert Projections
Even though housing supply has grown this year, it’s still low overall due to a long
period of underbuilding homes. And experts say that’s going to help keep upward
pressure on home prices. If you’re thinking of making a move, you shouldn’t wait for
prices to fall.
16.0%
12.8%
11.5%
10.0%
9.9%
9.6%
9.3%
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
NAR
Zelman
MBA
CoreLogic
HPES
Average of All Forecasts: 11.3%
10
You may be asking yourself: should I buy right now, or should I wait? While no
one can answer that question for you, here’s some information that could help
you make your decision.
11
The Benefit of Buying a Home Now
The Future of Home Price Appreciation
Each quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts,
and investment and market strategists to compile projections for the future of home price
appreciation. Their survey forecasts home prices will continue appreciating over the next five
years (see graph below):
As the graph shows, the rate of appreciation will moderate over the next few years as the market
shifts away from the feverish pace it saw during the pandemic. After this year, experts project
home price appreciation will continue, but at levels that are more typical for the market.
Estimated Home Price Performance
December to December, as Forecast in Q2 2022
Source: HPES, Q2 2022
9.3%
4.19%
3.12%
3.46%
4.00%
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
12
Bottom Line
Buying today can set you up for long-term success because your asset’s value (and
your own net worth) is projected to grow with ongoing home price appreciation. Let’s
connect to begin your homebuying journey today.
What Does That Mean for You?
Ongoing appreciation should give you peace of mind that your investment in homeownership is
worthwhile because you’re buying an asset that’s projected to grow in value in the years ahead.
To give you an idea of how this could impact your net worth, here’s how a typical home could
grow in value over the next five years using the expert price appreciation projections from
the Pulsenomics survey (see graph below):
Source: HPES 2022 2Q
Potential Home Price Growth Over the Next 5 Years
Based on Projections from the Home Price Expectation Survey
Potential growth in
household wealth over the
next five years based solely
on increased home equity
if you purchased a $390K
home in January of 2022.
$102,787
$390,000
$426,270 $444,131 $457,988 $473,834 $492,787
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Even at a more typical pace of appreciation, you still stand to gain significant equity.
That’s what’s at stake if you delay your plans.
13
The one thing you need to know as you watch the news and read the headlines
today is that a recession does not mean falling home prices.
The One Thing You Need To Know
About a Recession
Recession Does Not Mean Falling Prices
Home Price Change During the Last 6 Recessions
Sources: CoreLogic, The Balance
6.1%
3.5%
-1.9%
6.6%
-19.7%
6.0%
1980
1981
2001
2020
2008
1991
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 and some worry a recession now
would lead to a similar situation. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to
burst. Today, conditions in the housing market are very different. One big difference is
there’s far less available inventory this time. In 2008, we had a surplus of inventory,
and that’s why prices fell.
To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at
the historical data (see graph below):
14
Bottom Line
If you're wondering what a
recession would mean for the
housing market, you should
know history can help give us
important context for what
could happen next.
Looking back at the past six
recessions, the data proves a
recession doesn’t mean home
prices will fall.
There have been six recessions
in this country over the past
four decades.
As the graph on the previous page
shows, looking at the recessions
going all the way back to the
1980s, home prices appreciated
four times and depreciated only
two times.
So, historically, there’s proof
that when there’s a recession, it
doesn’t mean home values will
fall or depreciate.
15
With all the buzz in the media, you may start to worry the housing market is in
a bubble. While it’s only natural for concerns to creep in that there could be a
repeat of what took place in 2008, the good news is there’s concrete data to
show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six
months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will cause prices to fall. Anything less
than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis, and that
caused prices to tumble. Today, supply has grown, but there’s still a shortage of inventory
available (see graph below):
Why the Housing Market
Won’t Crash
4.8 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.5
6.5
8.9
10.4
8.8
9.4
8.3
5.9
4.9 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.9
3.1
2.3
3.3
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Today
Supply of Homes Is Nothing Like Last Time
Annual Average of Months’ Supply for 1999-2021
Source: NAR
16
Lending Standards Today Are Under Control
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June
2004
June
2006
June
2008
June
2010
June
2012
June
2014
June
2016
June
2018
June
2020
June
2022
Housing Bubble: 868.7
Leading up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and
making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home.
That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, things are different. Purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies,
and buyers are more qualified. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and
monetary policy tightening.”
Those stricter standards help prevent a wave of foreclosures like we saw last time.
One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple
that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it
continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer
demand is one of the reasons why experts forecast, nationally, home prices won’t fall this time.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today.
The graph below shows data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage
Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.
17
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the
housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because
buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below helps
tell the story:
Foreclosure Activity Then and Now
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings: ATTOM 2001 Year-End Report
Source: ATTOM Data Solutions
Bottom Line
If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, these
graphs should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly
show why this is nothing like the last time.
533K
718K
1.3M
2.3M
2.8M 2.9M
1.9M 1.8M
1.4M
1.1M 1.1M 933K
677K 624K 493K
214K 151K
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Over 1 Million
Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when
so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. With the pandemic
and the forbearance program, many people were able to stay in their homes and work out
alternative options.
And for those homeowners who still need to make a change due to financial hardship or other
challenges, today’s record level of equity is giving them the opportunity to sell their houses and
avoid foreclosure altogether. That’s why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to
the market.
When it comes to buying a home, it can feel a bit intimidating to know how
much you need to save. Here’s some information you’ll want to know about
programs that could help you reach your down payment goals.
You Can Qualify Even if You’ve Purchased a Home Before
There are several misconceptions about down payment assistance programs. For
starters, many people believe there’s only assistance available for first-time
homebuyers. While first-time buyers have many options to explore, repeat buyers have
some, too. According to the latest Homeownership Program Index from
downpaymentresource.com:
“It is a common misconception that homebuyer assistance is only available to
first-time homebuyers, however, 38% of homebuyer assistance programs in Q1
2022 did not have a first-time homebuyer requirement.”
That means repeat buyers could qualify for over one-third of the assistance programs
available. And if you’re a repeat buyer, you may still be able to take advantage of some
first-time homebuyer programs, depending on your personal situation. That’s
because many of the first-time homebuyer programs use the U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban Development’s definition of a first-time homebuyer.
What You Need To Know About
Down Payment Assistance Programs
18
Under their definition, you could qualify as a first-time buyer if you’re:
•
Someone who hasn’t owned a primary residence in 3 years.
•
A single parent who’s only ever owned a home with a former spouse.
That means no matter where you are in your homeownership journey, there could
be an option available for you.
You May Be Eligible Based on Your Location or Profession
Additionally, there are other types of down payment assistance programs that you could
qualify for based on your location. According to the National Association of
Realtors (NAR):
“Many local governments and non-profit organizations offer down-payment
assistance grants and loans, targeted to area borrowers and often with specific
borrower requirements.”
There are also programs and special benefits for individuals working in certain
professions or with unique statuses, including teachers, doctors and nurses, and
veterans. Ultimately, there are many federal, state, and local programs available for you
to explore. The best way to do that is to connect with a local real estate professional
and your lender to learn more about what’s available.
19
Bottom Line
Down payment assistance programs have helped many homebuyers achieve their
dreams, and if you qualify, they could help you too. Let’s connect today to discuss your
homebuying goals and options.
20